Trivandrum Poll Prediction by an Auto Driver
Today I asked an auto rickshaw driver in Trivandrum about his thoughts on the results of upcoming elections in Trivandrum constituency. It is really amazing to see the common man’s political awareness. This man (who must be in his mid 40s) predicted that Neelalohita Das will win from Trivandrum. He said everyone he talked to also said the same thing. He gave me the following reasons.
Neelan belongs to the Nadar community which is very strong in the rural areas of Trivandrum. Nadars were not given seats by both LDF and UDF. So regardless of their political affinity, this time they will make sure that a Nadar wins and that is going to benefit Neelan.
[ My thought: Seems right. This time Neelalohita Das is contesting from a BSP ticket, so some Dalit votes would also go in favor of him. ]
Trivandrum seat belongs to CPI. CPM has in-house issues with CPI in LDF. This internal split will show up in the voting. So there is a possibility that CPM voters might also vote for Neelan.
[ My thought: It is possible. CPM will not vote for Congress or BJP anyway, but they would need CPI to fail because of the internal conflicts. So the only possible candidate that they can vote for is Neelan as he is now in a different party. Not only that, this will also secure their interests in the national politics as it will ultimately benefit the Third Front where BSP and CPM are allies. ]
BJP will have their votes anyway. Their vote bank won’t split. But they will only come to a fourth position (after BSP, Congress and CPI).
[ My thought: Seems true ]
Shashi Tharoor will come to a close second. He has a great impression on educated people. So the youngsters and the educated urban class would vote for him.
[ My thought: I agree ]
Then I asked him if it matters to him that Mr. Tharoor does not have the local political experience and came all in a sudden from abroad. He answered:
It doesn’t matter whether he is from here or he is aware of the local politics. What have those local politicians done to solve any of the local issues? Nothing much. He is also educated and have international experience which would benefit us if he gets in to the ministry in the center.
[ My thought: I agree with this too ]
The kind of analytics that this person has presented really surprised me. Not only that, he actually spent time to talk to me during this busy evening, which shows how interested he is in the politics. And he did not take any sides too.
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April 5th, 2009 at 12:03 am
namaskaram undu
I heard Thendral Vandhu ennai thodum – one of my all time fav..and Jo Chetta as usual you have rocked it…
April 5th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Hey! Long time!
Thanks for the comments on the song.
April 5th, 2009 at 9:56 pm
That is a very clear analysis of the situation. Everybody ‘reads’ in Kerala, and that helps most of us to think through various issues.
I would differ only with respect to one of those questions discussed above. I think CPM aficionados would still vote for CPI. The internal conflict between the two will continue, but party discipline is such that CPM will be *required* to vote for CPI. CPI does not have human resource to undertake major campaigning. Almost everyone in that party is a self-proclaimed buddhi-jeevi. Most of the sweat work as part of the campaign will be done by CPM. So I feel.
April 6th, 2009 at 11:15 am
That could be true as well, considering that the party members always follow the orders.
April 6th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Sounds like an interesting fight there
April 6th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
It will be a pity if an eminent person like Sashi Tharoor loose out to a stupid politicians like Neelan who were also into some scandals in the past. Just like criminals cannot contest, they should not allow people who misbehaved to women as well.
But I won’t be surprised if Sashi Tharoor has the same fate as ONV who failed in TVM couple of decades back.
Caste and money politics rule!
April 8th, 2009 at 7:08 am
if neelan wins..it again proves that as ajith said – caste and money rules. let me also add religion to that list. and then everyone complains of corrupt politicians! maybe if they voted with heads there would be better politicians who are willing to run.
April 14th, 2009 at 3:31 am
What about the following facts:
(a) LDF votes will split between BSP and CPI
(b) BSP will lose a sizable amount of Nadar Christian Votes as they flirt with CPI(M) to form the Third Front at Center.
(c) BSP will lose some Nadar female votes (guess why!!)
(d) Shashi Tharoor will turn the votes of educated and progressive youth, who traditionally voted of CPI (that includes me!)
April 14th, 2009 at 10:29 am
BSP will definitely lose some female votes if the Nadar women truly cares about other women
April 16th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
Neelan is as educated as Shashi Taroor, Neelan holds a PhD in Hindi and he knows Trivandrum better than dumb ass Shashi Taroor. He do have a weakness of women, Does it matter?.. or do anyone know Shashi’s adventures in USA?.. Neelan is capable of policy making. Personal Abuse shouldn’t come here. Neelan is more than capable of a Global profile.
April 17th, 2009 at 5:28 am
Santhosh, your comment is amusing to read. You used abusing language against Shashi Tharoor but your next line is “Personal Abuse shouldn’t come here”. You don’t practice what you preach! right?
Regarding qualification, the following text is taken from wikipedia about Shashi Tharoor’s education:
“He then completed a Ph.D. at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Massachusetts, where he also earned two Master’s degrees. His Ph.D. was awarded when he was 22, a Fletcher record.”
If you think it is equivalent to a PhD in Hindi, it says a lot about your understanding of education.
Finally, about “Global Profile”; After V.K Krishna Menon, we never had a person who is capable of representing India in global arena. And that is what we, people who are passionate about India, expect from Shashi Tharoor.
April 17th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
How come my comment ” Do anyone know the adventures of Shashi Taroor” a personal abuse?.. He was born in Brittain and he was born rich to pursue education in US. Remember Neelan had to build with his own effort.
Now some of those adventures of Shashi Taroor, What is his belief in Kashmir issue?.. See the following video. it’s Shashi Taroor’s son attending an interview right in front of a map which shows Kashmir as a separate entity from India. Also in the same interview he says 90% of Trivandrum population is vegetarian… Are you kidding me?.. Why do u get soo much into the bandwagon of praising someone without realising all their policies?..
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/224790/april-16-2009/indian-elections—kanishk-tharoor
April 17th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
By the way Sagar Tufts University and Fletcher Law School in Boston MA is a Private Uty. and not even ranked as best University in Masachusets which is a State in the Eastern side of United States. Now your source of authenticity is wikipedia. I pity You. Anyone can edit Wikipedia articles. the profile before he got into politics is different from what is there now. One of those things I noticed they did REMOVE many things from and added loads of HOT AIR in there.
April 17th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
Another thing I noticed is ShashiTharoor’s campaighn website is 100% recycled Barack Obama policies. By the way I don’t specifically support a candidate. I wished it was AK Antony who will compete from here. However the political equations make it impossible to elect his vacant RajyaSabha seat from Kerala if he decide to run for Lok Sabha.
Shashi Tharoor’s public life did escape the media scrutiny. Why do people always need to believe his own narrative about himself?.. Did anyone do a proper journalism on his record?.. By the way I read some of his books including ‘Nehru the Invention of India’ and his book ‘India from midnight to millenium’. I am not saying someone who didn;t live in India other than for vacations cannot make a good parliamentarian?.. Why to experiment with my home town Trivandrum. Experiment somewhere else?.. I doubt how many here are truly from Trivandrum.
April 18th, 2009 at 10:23 pm
Santhosh, calling a respectable person a “dumb ass” in a public forum is definitely a personal abuse. Do you think otherwise?
If you think anyone may edit wikipedia, try to change the name of the university on Shashi Tharoor’s page! Wikipedia has a strict policy on vandalism and it works. Definitely you can hide facts, but you can’t simply login and write what ever you like. You seems to be a knowledgable person or atleast act like one, still your lack of understanding about such things is sad.
The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy is the oldest graduate school of international relations. There is a long array of ministers and deplomats from around the globe, graduated from that school. And Tufts University is ranked 163 among the world universities. Now, what about the University of Kerala. (BTW I am graduated from the University of Kerala). You will be shocked to read that universities like Harvard, Amherst are also private. Getting into one of those private universities is like dreaming in colors, for people like me here.
Your complaint about Shashi Tharoors campaign website is laughable. Where is Mr. Neelalohithadasan Nadar’s private campaign website. Did you ever hear the phrase “First remove the beam out of your own eye, and then you can see clearly to remove the speck out of your brother’s eye”
I will try not to continue this conversation in the future because I feel like I am wasting my time. So before leaving, I would like to add this to my comment. I am from Trivandrum, currently living in North America, and my family is acquainted to Mr. Neelalohithadasan Nadar’s family (this is also through the university). My decision to support Mr. Shashi Tharoor is not influenced by my personal relationships or even by my ideology. It is about the greater good for our Nation.
Jo, thanks for the interesting article.
April 20th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
My use of word “dumbass” is specific to his knowledge about Trivandrum as a place. I believe I used it in the right context. However any rich person can get admission into US Universities and those who are not so fortunate with wealth have to work for it.I am not boasting about my educational pedigree. I do not believe a person’s education alone is no indication of his character or beliefs. There are athiests who are educated in Seminary’s and Nobel Laureates who are hard core religious believers. I am just skeptical about his policies. Also your judgement of Auto Drivers as ignorant is noway glorifies your credentials. Your belief of Educated people has the holy grail of knowledge is sickening.
About Vandalism of Wikipedia. Vandalism applies only about Negative News. Do you know the push and pull happened between conservatives and liberal about Barack Obama’s religious affiliations?.
Why do Shashi Tharoor believes he has the devine right to go to India and immediately become a member of Parliament. I want him to lose and if he stays committed to Indian Politics and Trivandrum I will definitely vote for him in next election. He has questionable policies when in comes to India and unknown quantity when it comes Trivandrum.